tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13914598433641093432024-01-19T02:43:49.195-08:00CommonCensusThe demographics that shape the future of alternative investmentsNuWire Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02512928198926080436noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-31118136778269221882012-01-30T11:26:00.000-08:002012-01-31T07:46:52.114-08:00Consumer debt average falls in 2011 – An insight into the phenomenon2011 was a good year for consumer debts. Consumers on average reduced their credit card debt by 11% last year. In 2011, the average credit card balance was $6,576, while the average credit card debt balance from 2010 was $7,404, according to CreditKarma.com. These results were based on data taken from 300,000 consumers. The main reason for the decline is weak consumer confidence, people were choosing to pay with cash rather than risk further debt.<br /><br />Along with this, banks continued to tighten their lending limits and reduce the amount of credit available on credit cards for many existing customers.<br /><br />In 2010 the amount of debt consumers owed eased after slipping by 7% during that year. However, it is being anticipated that this positive trend might not last very long. The economy is looking to rebound, and as a result debt is likely to increase as well according to experts. The major impetus behind this will be the loosening of credit requirements. According to Ken Lin, the CEO of CreditKarma, America is currently at the bottom of the debt trend.<br /><br />Here is a look at the debt situations in some U.S. states:<br /><ul><li>Wisconsin consumers had the lowest average credit card debt ($5,062) in 2011.</li><li>Mississippi and Alabama recorded the largest balance declines - residents in those states reduced their balances by 23% and 16% respectively.</li><li>Alaska had the biggest average consumer debt ($7,937) - closely followed by New Hampshire and Connecticut.</li></ul>Some trivia about debt in America:<br /><ul><li>The national average for mortgage debt remained steady at $173,876.</li><li>The most mortgage debt was carried by Californians ($313,749 per person).</li><li>West Virginia had the lowest average mortgage debt at $104,279. </li><li>Mortgage debt rose 12% in South Dakota and dropped 6% in Nevada.</li><li>The only debt type that increased was auto loan debt. That rose by 2% to an average of $15,504. The biggest rise was seen in Alabama, where auto debt rose by 30% to an average of $20,996.</li></ul><p>About the author:</p><span style="font-style: italic;">Rick Murphy is a contributory writer associated with the Debt Consolidation Care Community and has written several articles for various financial websites. He holds his expertise in the Debt industry and has made significant contribution through his various articles. To get debt related help visit: </span><a href="http://www.debtconsolidationcare.com/debt-settlement.html" rel="nofollow">debtconsolidationcare.com/debt-settlement.html</a>Eric Ameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345721212538060888noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-3402102336535328722010-03-04T05:57:00.000-08:002010-03-04T05:57:00.264-08:00The Mortgage Refinancing Catch-22<span style="font-style: italic;">Although mortgage rates are extremely low, most existing homeowners are not able to take advantage of them due to stricter standards and reduced equity. Because the borrowers who are able to refinance tend to be the best qualified and least likely to be in trouble, many homeowners who currently have ARM loans will not be able to refinance as rates go up and will default as their payments become unaffordable. See the following post from </span><a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://expectedreturns.blogspot.com/">Expected Returns</a><span style="font-style: italic;">. </span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/mortgagerefinancetrouble-746769.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 226px; height: 320px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/mortgagerefinancetrouble-746767.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>The government has been active in purchasing agency debt and artificially pushing 30-year mortgage rates to 5%. For the 1 in 4 Americans who are underwater on their homes, this should be good news. Unfortunately, very few are able to refinance and benefit from low mortgage rates. From the WSJ, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704358004575096020101445724.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=com-wsj">Borrowers Miss out on Billions in Savings</a>:<blockquote>The Federal Reserve has pushed mortgage rates to near half-century lows, but millions of U.S. homeowners haven't benefited from that because they can't—or won't—refinance.<br /><br /> Falling home prices have left many owners with little or no equity, making it harder to qualify for refinancing. Moreover, stricter lending standards and higher fees by banks and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and declining incomes have made it tougher and less attractive for borrowers to seek new loans. </blockquote>The government has done pretty much everything to bail out speculators, at taxpayers' expense, who gambled on homes that supposedly never go down in value. The bail outs obviously are having very little direct effect on the housing market. Existing homeowners are unable to refinance at low rates, and as I mentioned recently, new home sales are cratering.<br /><br />Keep in mind that new and existing home sales tend to rise and fall together in close correlation. However, we are now seeing a growing disconnect between new and existing home sales, which strongly suggests that existing home "sales" are of the distressed kind. This is why home prices are coming under pressure even with massive government intervention.<br /><blockquote> The last time mortgage rates were at current levels, in 2003, refinancing activity hit $2.9 trillion, according to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance. Last year, refinance volume reached $1.2 trillion, the highest amount since 2003 but not nearly as much as expected, considering how low interest rates have fallen.<br /><br /> Traditionally, borrowers have an incentive to refinance when they can reduce their mortgage rate by one percentage point or more.<br /><br /> Borrowers who are refinancing tend to be those who need it least. Fannie and Freddie refinanced 4.2 million borrowers last year. On average, borrowers who refinanced through Freddie Mac saved $2,600 annually. But the savings on the whole have gone to "very, very good credit borrowers and it really isn't going very far down the credit spectrum," said Michael Fratantoni, the head of research and economics for the MBA.</blockquote>Since refinancing is being extended to only the most prudent borrowers, the housing crisis, which is a product of the imprudent, will move ahead on schedule. It should be clear at this point that banks won't extend credit in an environment they still perceive to be weak.<br /><br />Understand that this is a very tenuous situation. There are a wave of option ARM resets coming due, and I suspect many homeowners are counting their lucky stars since their option ARMS are resetting at a low rate.<br /><br />Once mortgage rates start rising, there will be a mad rush to refinance and lock in low rates. Expect these homeowners to be blocked from these attempts, which will force them to foreclose as their mortgage payments rise exponentially.<br /><br />The following chart showing the wave of resetting loans suggests that the next 2 years will be very challenging for housing.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_GMJXL-x1dPA/S46MQEkU_BI/AAAAAAAAArI/yxUWnj0k1NM/s320/option+armageddon.PNG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 229px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_GMJXL-x1dPA/S46MQEkU_BI/AAAAAAAAArI/yxUWnj0k1NM/s320/option+armageddon.PNG" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Homeowners got way too overleveraged for this crisis to be cured by lower mortgage rates alone. In reality, the only cure for lower prices, are lower prices. The government must allow people to default so we can clean up all the bad debt from the system and transfer ownership of homes from weak to strong hands. This is the only logical thing to do, and the only thing that has worked historically.<br /><br />Instead, we are creating zombie banks and a weak credit environment, which translates to a weak economic environment.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">This post has been republished from </span><a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://expectedreturns.blogspot.com/2010/03/homeowners-fail-to-refinance-and-lock.html">Moses Kim's blog, Expected Returns</a><span style="font-style: italic;">. </span>NuWire Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02512928198926080436noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-87801083588375101102008-10-31T12:59:00.000-07:002011-07-08T12:08:55.686-07:0018 Percent Of Mortgaged Homes Now Upside-Down18 percent of mortgaged homes nationwide are now upside-down, according to a report released today by First American CoreLogic, an affiliate of title insurance and real estate services company First American Corp. 64 percent of those homes were in seven hard hit states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. According to a Reuters article:<br /><blockquote><em>...states with large numbers of homes with negative equity either had<br />rapid price appreciation, many homes bought with subprime mortgages or as<br />speculative investments, steep manufacturing declines, or a<br />combination.</em><br /><em></em><br /><em>Nevada was hardest hit, where mortgage borrowers on average owed 89<br />percent of what their homes were worth, and 48 percent had negative equity.<br />Michigan was second, with an 85 percent loan-to-value ratio and 39 percent of<br />borrowers underwater.</em></blockquote><br />David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, predicts that home prices nationwide will fall another 10 percent before bottoming late next year, according to a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49S3Q520081031">Reuters article</a>. He states, "Things seem to be stabilizing in Michigan, but the big bubble states—Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada—are still very overpriced." He also believes that though New York fared best in the report with only 4.4 percent of homeowners with negative equity, the state is still at risk the economy slows and leaves less money for housing.<br /><br />Other experts go further by predicting the worst U.S. recession since the early 1980s. All 20 MSAs measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices saw home prices decline between August 2007 and August 2008. In Q3 of 2008, foreclosures rose 71 percent to a record 765,558, according to RealtyTrac. The Commerce Department said the U.S. GDP fell at a 0.3 percent rate in Q3, according to Reuters.<br /><br />Recent bank rescue plans have yet to spur lending and ease mortgage rates. This week, the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped almost half a percentage point to 6.46 percent according to Freddie Mac. In addition, borrowing costs on adjustable-rate mortgages are expected to rise in the coming months. According to the Reuters article, "Last week, Wachovia Corp said borrowers with its "Pick-a-Pay" ARMs and living in or near Stockton and Merced, California, owed at least 55 percent more on their mortgages, on average, than their homes were worth."Trenton Flockhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15132009215858128588noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-37887181637671545442008-10-28T08:34:00.000-07:002010-08-30T11:46:27.547-07:00Retirement Age Grows More Distant For Many In Wake Of CrisisLate retirement is becoming a necessity for increasing numbers of older Americans amid the financial crisis. Before the turmoil on Wall Street decimated many retirement portfolios, in a survey conducted last year for a report released by the AARP last week, 70 percent of older workers said that they would retire late for lack of money. There is little doubt that this number has increased since the survey was conducted.<br /><br />"With people's knee-jerk reaction in looking at both the economy and looking at their own finances, working longer may be the only way to get themselves to remain financially secure," said Deborah Russell, director of work-force issues at AARP. With retirement accounts taking a beating, a simple look at a retirement planning calculator will likely show that people need to work several more years to make up the difference. In addition more people are taking their money out of stocks and other investments out of fear and putting it into low yield things like savings accounts — which also lengthens the time needed to reach their retirement goals.<br /><br />Late retirement complicates matters for the entire workforce and employers. Older workers may be costlier in terms of salary and benefits, and in an effect some have called "the gray ceiling" younger workers will have fewer opportunities as fewer and fewer elders retire at the previously anticipated age.<br /><br />"A lot of younger people are waiting for those good jobs. To the extent that older people are not giving up those jobs, that's going to cause problems," said Richard Johnson, researcher at the Urban Institute in Washington.<br /><br />If older Americans want to keep their jobs, they need to be assertive in doing so in the face of these many pressures on employers. Director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Alicia Munnell, advises, "Control what you can control. We can't do much about the craziness in the market, but you certainly can control, in many cases, how long you're going to work....We thought that was the right answer even before the financial crisis. Everything has just intensified since then."<br /><br />Source: <a href="http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/wned/news.newsmain?action=article&ARTICLE_ID=1396816">Reuters via NPR</a>Trenton Flockhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15132009215858128588noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-33562706824806881542008-09-03T10:44:00.000-07:002008-09-03T10:59:40.162-07:00Baby Boomers Boosting Resort And College Town Real Estate Markets<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/docsearls/2776375186/"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/New-England-718934.jpg" border="0" /></a>While the housing crisis continues to pound many regions in the United States, a small subset of college and resort town communities have continued to grow, largely because of their popularity among retiring and second home-owning baby boomers looking to spend more time in their favorite vacation destinations. Many of these towns, such as Flagstaff, Arizona, have seen growth rates double and triple that of the average rural small town, according to <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93709452">NPR</a>. The demand for housing in small scenic towns- such as beach resorts, western ski towns and New England villages will only continue to grow as more baby boomers retire, creating the “demographic perfect storm” for growth in these areas, demographer Kenneth Johnson said.<br /><br />Reactions have been mixed in regard to the increasing popularity of these picturesque destinations. Proponents argue that newcomers bring jobs and wealth, shielding these rural communities from economic downturn. Critics contend that the influx of wealthy baby boomers raises housing prices through gentrification and generates a surge in the overall cost of living for all residents of these small communities. The median house price in Flagstaff, for instance, has more than doubled in the past eight years. Rising house prices have forced many middle-income families to reconsider living in Flagstaff, resulting in backlash that has been paraphrased in a bumper sticker slogan popular in the region: “Don’t Phoenix Flagstaff.”<br /><br />As increasing numbers of baby boomers approach retirement, it will be important for these small towns to consider plans to keep growth at a comfortable yet steady clip. While continued growth and strong real estate markets can be extremely beneficial for these communities, unfettered growth can have disastrous consequences, potentially destroying the small town charm that made them unique and desirable in the first place.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-89275348816951005662008-08-28T09:49:00.000-07:002008-08-28T10:16:37.411-07:00Is It Time To Reconsider The National Drinking Age?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/jsgphoto/37446227/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 286px; height: 214px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/beer-mug-736882.jpg" alt="beer_mug" border="0" /></a>Has the United States drinking age of 21 failed? More than 100 college presidents think it has, signing a proposal to lower the drinking age to 18 in an effort they hope will curb binge drinking and promote moderation on college campuses. Spearheaded by former Middlebury College President John McCardell, the <a href="http://www.amethystinitiative.org/">Amethyst Initiative</a> was drafted in response to a growing concern among college administrators that the high nationally mandated drinking age in the United States is promoting an unhealthy culture of clandestine binge drinking among college students. The initiative has been signed off by the presidents of prestigious institutions including the presidents of Duke University, Dartmouth College and the University of Maryland.<br /><br />The initiative has stirred strong criticism from groups such as Mothers Against Drunk Driving, as well health and transportation officials, says the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/20/AR2008082003626.html">Washington Post</a>. Groups such as MADD claim that the higher drinking age saves over 900 lives per year in drunk-driving related deaths. Other critics contend that college administrators are simply trying to transfer their responsibility in dealing with teenage drinking by putting the burden on parents and high school administrators.<br /><br />I find the topic to be an interesting one, and see compelling arguments on both sides. As a recent college graduate, I can attest that the message that school administrators send to the students is often convoluted – underage drinking was explicitly prohibited on campus, yet administrators acknowledged that it is nearly impossible to control, and as a result often minimally enforced the policy. Whenever it was perceived by the students that the school was being forced to crack down on underage drinking, underclass students tended to respond in expected and dangerous ways, by locking themselves in dorm rooms and “pre-gaming” with bottles of hard alcohol.<br /><br />Lowering the drinking age would also be beneficial to small businesses in college towns, particularly bars and music venues. During the 1970s, the small New England town where I went to college had several bars and other establishments catered to students, yet these businesses shut down when the national drinking age was enforced. As a result there is relatively little interaction between the students and members of the community, as well as few places for students to go that aren’t owned and promoted directly by the school itself.<br /><br />Unfortunately for the signatories of the Amethyst Initiative, it is extremely unlikely that lowering the drinking age will ever be seriously considered on the national stage. The national drinking age is enforced by Congress by tying the 21 and over age to federal highway funding - it is unconstitutional for Congress to directly mandate a drinking age, yet does so by threatening to cut any state’s access to federal highway funding if the drinking age is ever lowered. With the vast majority of the voting public over the age of 21, few voters are directly affected by the drinking age, yet most voters have a real concern in maintaining federal highways.<br /><br />It is unfortunate that there is little chance of a serious debate on this important issue, and I find it disappointing that groups such as MADD overwhelmingly oppose any real discussion. The decrease in drunk-driving related deaths is a significant and compelling argument for keeping the drinking age at 21 – yet how does this compare to injuries and deaths related to binge drinking, and have these numbers actually been increasing as the college presidents say they have? More importantly, how does a culture of binge-drinking and excess affect people later in life – would a lower drinking age and an emphasis on moderation result in lower rates of alcoholism in the future? These are important questions that I would hope could be addressed by these groups, yet fear that they will never be seriously discussed at a national level.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-18939139605512221672008-08-19T08:27:00.000-07:002008-08-19T09:02:27.537-07:00Women And Online Media<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/notionscapital/2493066577/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 256px; height: 299px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/women_blogging-784828.jpg" alt="women_blogging" border="0" /></a>The number of visitors to websites catering to female audiences has doubled in the past two years, says the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/technology/14women.htm">New York Times</a>. The number of sites targeting women exclusively has increased by 35 percent in the last year, making it one of the fastest growing online sectors, second only to politically-themed sites. Websites such as <a href="http://www.dooce.com/">Dooce.com</a>, a humorous blog about motherhood, provide content similar to that of popular female magazines, but in a more informal and accessible format. The most popular sites command a high price for ad space and have become quite lucrative.<br /><br />Investors have taken notice of the rising popularity of these websites and blogs; Comcast recently put down $125 million to buy <a href="http://www.dailycandy.com/">Daily Candy</a>, a popular fashion blog. Major retailers such as Wal-Mart and JCPenney have been using tactics gleaned from these websites to target products specifically to female audiences. For instance, Wal-Mart employed an online ad campaign on the Glam Media network (a collection of over 650 affiliated women’s sites) in the form of a quiz called “What’s Your Steak Style?” that featured online advertisements of Wal-Mart's oh-so-delicious steak collection.<br /><br />The Times article also noted that the recent surge in interest in websites catering to women has not been replicated for male audiences. The article accounts for this by stating that women are attracted to the irreverence, humor and community on these sites, while men are often harder to pin down. While I am sure that there are often inherent differences between the websites that men and women choose to read, and that the irreverence and honesty of these popular blogs has helped make these sites popular among women, I am not convinced that these factors can completely explain the discrepancies between trends and male- and female-focused websites.<br /><br />Historically, men have had a larger presence on the Internet. Websites that may have been male-centric have had more time to diversify, which makes it difficult to generalize a website as "just for men," rather than a more specific topic which appeals to either gender. As these sites catering to women continue to gain popularity, it seems likely that they too will diversify.<br /><br />In addition, in the rapidly evolving ecosystem of the Internet, it is often difficult to sustain popularity over time. Internet users are finicky and lack loyalty to specific sites, not only expecting change, but demanding it. For instance, in the realm of social networking sites, Friendster begat MySpace, which begat Facebook, which begat LinkedIn—the current <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/technology/personaltech/14basics.html?em">darling</a> of the mainstream media (I personally think Mark Zuckerberg was a moron to not sell Facebook when he had the chance, especially given the recent fallout of Google’s talks to acquire the popular—yet likely doomed—news aggregator Digg.com). Once a concept online has been deemed “the next big thing” by traditional media outlets such as the New York Times, the trend is often close to the peak.<br /><br />So now that I am done with that little tirade on Internet trends in general, I will comment that there are things to be said about the rapidly increasing popularity of sites catering specifically to women. Women account for 50.3 percent of the U.S. population, but their influence on the Internet seems only to be recently acknowledged. Understanding what makes certain sites popular, as well as how female preferences differ from those of men, will be crucial to understanding the direction of female-oriented websites as they begin to diversify and become appealing to more specific demographic groups.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-6803869800738510452008-08-15T08:36:00.000-07:002008-08-15T08:36:00.242-07:00Steetcars Making A Comeback In American Cities<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ella_marie/1444358025/sizes/l/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 267px; height: 356px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/portland_streetcar-724180.jpg" alt="portland_streetcar" border="0" /></a>Streetcars may be starting to return to American cities, says the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/us/14streetcar.html">New York Times</a>, with nearly 40 cities in the country exploring options to create new tram systems. Portland, Oregon was the first city to invest in a modern streetcar line, and has seen success in the program since it was initiated in 2001. Other cities are weighing their options, hoping to create affordable public transportation systems that will attract young professionals and spur economic growth and development along the lines. In Cincinnati, city officials are gathering funds for a $132 million streetcar system that will connect several neighborhoods in a six- to eight-mile loop. The city hopes the project will rejuvenate the run-down neighborhoods through which the proposed trolley will run.<br /><br />While many U.S. cities had streetcars operating in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the majority of American cities dismantled their lines in the middle 20th century, making way for the up-and-coming automobile. Yet trams have many inherent benefits, and in fact have remained popular in many European cities. Unlike subways or light rail systems, streetcars operate on tracks that are flush with the road, creating a system that is much more integrated into the community and give riders direct views of storefronts and the surrounding neighborhood. Streetcars have additional advantages over busses in that they can be boarded from both sides, and in some cities have the right of way over normal car and bus traffic.<br /><br />Having grown up in a Philadelphia suburb still serviced by a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEPTA_Surface_Media_and_Sharon_Hill_Trolley_Lines">trolley system</a> (surprisingly, Philadelphia’s SEPTA continues to operate several trolleys that extend out into the suburbs--much less glamorous than the more famous trams in New Orleans or cable cars in San Francisco), I look forward to seeing more cities utilize streetcar and light rail public transportation systems. Static public transportation systems provide much more incentive for investment in the neighborhoods that are serviced by them, a tactic that Seattle (with the support of Microsoft billionaire Paul Allen) employed when creating the <a href="http://www.seattlestreetcar.org/">South Lake Union Streetcar</a> line (formerly officially named the South Lake Union Trolley; an unfortunate acronym led to the name change), to bolster interest in an area that up until recently had been predominantly home to industrial warehouses.<br /><br />As major cities look to build new streetcar systems and extend additional lines, investors should be aware of the potential opportunities these new public transportation lines could bring.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-70518666083752708872008-08-14T10:15:00.000-07:002008-08-14T10:16:09.445-07:00Minorities The Majority In One In 10 U.S. CountiesAccording to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/07/us/07census.html?em">New York Times</a>, minority groups made up the majority of the population in one in 10 counties in the United States in 2007. Among young people, the numbers are even higher, with minorities composing nearly 43 percent of the population under the age of 20. Minorities make up about one third of the United States population, and with such a large contingent of young people, are likely to break 50 percent of the population earlier than the original prediction of 2050.<br /><br />The statistics, from data recently published by the U.S. census bureau, paint a complex picture of diversity in the United States; yet the data continues to follow historical geographic trends. Counties with African American majorities tended to be in Southern states, and counties with Hispanic majorities were predominantly along the Southern U.S. border in the South and West (for a more detailed look, check out the New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/08/07/us/07census.gr.ready.html">demographic map</a>).Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-2309466877659794322008-08-13T09:07:00.000-07:002008-08-13T09:07:00.532-07:00Las Vegas Growth Pushes Development Into Northeastern Arizona, But At What Cost?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/kenlund/2640202774/sizes/l/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 348px; height: 261px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/Kingman-743817.jpg" alt="Kingman-Arizona" border="0" /></a>A planned bridge expansion on the Colorado River, providing easier access to Las Vegas from Eastern Arizona by expanding a two lane bridge to four lanes, is opening up the region for new development, the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/10/us/10kingman.html?em">New York Times</a> reported. As developers around the Las Vegas metropolitan area thirst for raw land, plans are underway to develop communities in northeastern Arizona as the newest <a href="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/wiki/pages/exurb.aspx">exurbs</a> of Las Vegas. Builders in Kingman, Arizona, a desert outpost with a current population of 40,000, are planning on building new homes at a pace that would create 80,000 new homes in the region by 2040. This could boost the town’s population to nearly 200,000 in that time span.<br /><br />The developers responsible for the planned communities are optimistic, despite high gas prices and the collapsed housing market. According to John Salem, the mayor of Kingman, “It’s gorgeous here, we don’t have any natural disasters, no forest fires, no hurricanes, tornadoes or floods, good schools, lots of cheap land, the cost of living’s down, we have proximity to the Colorado River, to Flagstaff, to Las Vegas, to Phoenix.” In addition to this, hydrology studies by the principal developers in the region have concluded that the local aquifers could support high population growth for the next 100 years.<br /><br />Despite this confidence in building new houses in Kingman, I find it surprising that these types of developments are still being promoted with such fervor. Given the state of the economy, rising fuel prices and growing concern about global climate change, building 80,000 homes in the middle of the desert, two hours away from the closest metropolitan area (one hour once the bridge is completed in 2010) on top of a reserve of water that is estimated to last 100 years at best sounds like an economic and environmental disaster waiting to happen.<br /><br />At a time when consumer preference appears to indicate a <a href="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/stepford-no-more-the-death-of-suburbia-51767.aspx">shift back to more urban environs</a>, investors should consider more realistic options. To borrow a concept from environmental writer Bill McKibben, we need to look for durable solutions--such as investing in public transportation infrastructure, urban infill and brownfields remediation--rather than continuing to push development into geographic regions that can be considered "marginally sustainable" at best.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-40940796176691256672008-08-12T08:28:00.000-07:002008-08-12T08:28:00.439-07:00With High Fuel Prices Bikes Are In And Planes Are Out<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/bike/2120171275/sizes/l/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 349px; height: 262px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/bike_in_traffic-720773.jpg" alt="bike in traffic" border="0" /></a>The high fuel prices this summer are having major effects on the United States’ mobile population: Cities are beginning to see real increases in the number of bicyclists on the streets and significant cuts in scheduled airline flights. <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/149224">Newsweek</a> reports that bike friendly cities such as Portland, Oregon have had major increases in the number of bike riders as commuters look for alternative methods of transportation. The city has experienced a 24 percent increase in the number of bikers on certain bridges this May over the same month last year.<br /><br />While the increasing number of (non-carbon-emitting) bicycles on the street is a positive consequence of high gas prices (aside from the occasional confrontation between aggressive bikers and motorists), high fuel prices have begun having a negative impact on some communities as airlines begin drastic cuts in scheduled flights to smaller markets. <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93127588">NPR</a> reports that small airports such as Monterey, California, Butte, Montana and Ft. Lauderdale, Florida are beginning to see airlines cancel numerous flights and even discontinue service altogether.<br /><br />Some lawmakers are responding to these cuts in service by suggesting increasing government subsidies for these flights, through the preexisting federal “Essential Air Service” program. Proponents argue that subsidies are necessary to keep smaller and more remote communities afloat and that arguments against the subsidies are "elitist" and are geared against small-town America.<br /><br />While it is unfortunate that it may no longer be economical to have frequent flights to smaller airports, I think that arguing to subsidize the airline industry in this way is incredibly misguided. As fuel becomes more expensive, subsidies would only prolong the inevitable. Investing in expensive and inefficient airline routes is contrary to the direction the market is moving and would undermine funds that could more appropriately used to bolster public transportation systems and enhance the nation’s infrastructure to better accommodate cyclists (which is clearly the direction that the market is moving).Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-59120440667702504462008-08-11T07:15:00.000-07:002008-08-11T07:15:00.416-07:00Digital Mapping, Campaign Contributions, and... Jimmy Buffet?The Internet has brought down many of the barriers involved in obtaining public information, particularly in the realm of politics. Information on campaign contributions, election results and other public information from the U.S. Census Bureau and other government agencies--once only accessible to politicians, journalists and grad students- -is now available to anyone with an Internet connection. Powerful web applications such as Google Maps<a href="http://maps.google.com/"></a> allow this public information to be displayed in an intuitive and interactive manner, making it simple to answer those burning questions such as “What are the political leanings of the new city I just relocated to?” or “Is my boss as conservative in his politics as he is with my paycheck?” and “Which political campaigns did Jimmy Buffet donate to this year?”<br /><br />Google provides a good starting point when looking for this type of information, as many sources utilize Google’s mapping technology. <a href="http://maps.google.com/">Google Maps</a> has a <a href="http://maps.google.com/help/maps/elections/">portal</a> devoted entirely to this year’s election, with links to various election related maps. A primary results map breaks down all of the recent primary elections by each party, as well as by state and county. By clicking a desired location you can find out what percentage of people in your chosen county voted for Obama, as well as what regions picked Huckabee (remember him?) over McCain.<br /><br />For an even more local approach, there is <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/">Huffington Post’s</a> <a href="http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/">Fundrace</a> website (which you can view on Google’s election portal as well, but without the snazzy search features available directly through HuffPost). Fundrace, which first appeared during the 2004 election cycle, divulges public information on campaign contributions over $200, allowing you to search for anyone by name or address. This means you can see the major campaign contributions of everyone in your neighborhood (which could potentially avert any awkward conversations at your local block party this summer), and lets you investigate the contributions of specific people (who knew Uncle Seymour was really a bleeding heart liberal all along?).<br /><br />Tools like Fundrace are interesting because they provide a vast wealth of knowledge and provide a snapshot of the country in a way that was once available only to a select few. As a tool, Google Maps is exciting because it invites users to <a href="http://maps.google.com/help/maps/elections/getstarted.html">create</a> their own maps, using whatever datasets they have access to (in addition to the vast array of features, including Street View, traffic predictions and walking directions, that Google has already developed). Tools like this help to add transparency to the political process, as well as democratize freely available information.<br /><br />On a side note--Jimmy Buffet has contributed to the campaigns of Wesley Clark, Bob Graham and Congressman Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania’s 7th District (my home district).Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-41517198822697367372008-08-08T12:00:00.000-07:002008-08-08T12:23:25.771-07:00Unemployment In United States At Highest Level In Four YearsThe unemployment rate in the United States has reached its highest level in four years, reports the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/02/business/02econ.html">New York Times</a>. Topping off at a jobless rate of 5.7 percent in July, the labor market shed 51,000 jobs this past month. Young people have been particularly affected by the downturn in the job market, especially for those seeking first jobs, as the teenage unemployment rate has hit 19 percent, its highest point in 16 years.<br /><br />The unemployment rate was one more piece in a worrisome series of recent events, including store closings and layoffs at coffee behemoth Starbucks and a $15.5 billion loss posted by GM this past quarter. Despite this, economists have yet to declare the current state of the economy officially as a recession, given that the latest reports show that the nation’s GDP is still increasing (albeit at a slower pace than expected). These factors further muddle the country’s economic outlook, as few people seem to know what to make of it--earlier this week the New York Times ran the headline “GDP Grows at Tepid 1.9% Pace Despite Stimulus,” while the Washington Post simultaneously ran the headline “US Economic Growth Improves Over First Quarter,” both citing identical government statistics.<br /><br />Even the jobless data sent mixed signals, with the 51,000 jobs lost significantly less than the 75,000 that were predicted to disappear. Either way, rising unemployment is never good for the economy, and in comparison to the relatively abstract concept of gross domestic product, layoffs have a much more tangible impact on the average American.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-89083492759158397982008-07-31T07:48:00.000-07:002008-07-31T07:48:00.779-07:00Younger Americans Seeking A Life Abroad<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/flickerbulb/222286429/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 135px; height: 203px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/Expatriate-734724.jpg" alt="Expatriate" border="0" /></a>An increasing number of Americans are seeking life abroad, <a href="http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/2008/07/28/a-growing-trend-of-leaving-america.html">according to U.S. News and World Reports</a>. Independent organizations estimate that between 4 and 7 million non-government employed U.S. citizens are living outside the United States. (The U.S. Census Bureau doesn’t keep track for apparent budgetary and security reasons.) The article states that “recent Zogby polls commissioned by New Global Initiatives, a consulting firm, yielded surprising results: 1.6 million U.S. households had already determined to relocate abroad; an additional 1.8 million households were seriously considering such a move, while 7.7 million more were ‘somewhat seriously’ contemplating it.” Given these figures, it can be estimated that roughly 3 million Americans are relocating abroad each year.<br /><br />In addition to the growing trend of Americans moving abroad, one of the most surprising aspects of the new wave of expatriates is that an increasing number of these émigrés are not retirees, but a younger, more computer literate group of Americans between the ages of 25 and 34. Unlike Hemingway’s fabled “Lost Generation,” today’s younger generation of expatriates is not motivated to relocate because of political dissatisfaction or the desire to write the great American novel (from a café in Paris, of course). They are more often than not entrepreneurs, emboldened and liberated by the conveniences of the Internet. Having grown up in a world of cell phones, e-mail, instant messenger and Facebook, keeping in contact with friends and family, in say New York, is just as easy having relocated to Panama City (in this respect), as it would be moving to Los Angeles (and in fact, less of a time difference). Thanks to the marvels of the Internet, for all you know, unsuspecting reader, I could be writing this blog from beach in Belize, aboard an arctic icebreaker, or in an office above a collision center in a ubiquitous American suburb (I’ll never tell).<br /><br />As a member of the demographic group in question, I have witnessed this movement abroad within my own group of friends (several of whom are currently living outside of the country), and will be interested to see if the trend continues, given the current position of the dollar and the rising costs of fuel. The Internet has certainly made the process easier, and advancements in telecommuting technology will only help to generate more options for adventurous Americans looking for a new life abroad.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-83463936674336531152008-07-30T07:07:00.000-07:002008-07-30T07:07:00.858-07:00Federal Minimum Wage Increased To $6.55 An Hour In July<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/21484712@N00/2516570127/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 281px; height: 169px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/Minimum-Wage-704683.jpg" alt="Minimum_Wage" border="0" /></a>While everyone on Wall Street continues to sweat over the souring economy, minimum wage employees had something to look forward to this month: a mandatory raise, in the form of a seventy-cent increase in the federal minimum wage. The increase raises the minimum wage to $6.55, the second step in an incremental three-step minimum wage increase that will put the wage at $7.25 next summer. According to a report on <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92825815">NPR</a>, while this incremental minimum wage increase is the first in a decade, the rate is still lagging behind inflation, and is far from the high minimum wages workers enjoyed in the 1960s and 1970s.<br /><br />So who will be affected by the wage increase? Nearly one quarter of the people receiving minimum wage are teenagers. About half of minimum wage workers are working full time. Many seniors take minimum wage jobs as well, reports <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92728665">NPR</a>, often as a supplement to Social Security checks and pensions. Seniors working minimum wage jobs are likely to reap the most benefit from the wage increase, as many are in need of extra salary to offset healthcare costs.<br /><br />Some fear that the wage increases come at an inopportune time for small business owners, given the current uncertainty in the economy, and that the increase may reflect in job losses among the nation’s lowest income bracket. Despite the opposition from some business leaders, the wage increase comes at a time when low income employees are particularly hard hit by inflation and high energy prices, pressure that should hopefully be alleviated somewhat by the mandatory wage increase. Even with the increased minimum wage, working full time at that salary is only yields $13,624 a year, still $8,000 below the federal poverty line for a family of four.Patrick Woolfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05823674029175577658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-32623367546931930292008-07-29T07:23:00.000-07:002008-07-29T07:23:00.597-07:00Why Are More Women Leaving The Workforce? It’s The Economy, StupidA recent study from the United States department of labor indicates that women are dropping out of the workforce for the same reasons as men: the poor economy and declining wages. According to an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/business/22jobs.html?em&ex=1216958400&en=7dfb278a5068cce1&ei=5087%0A">article in the New York Times</a>, this decade has shown the first drop in the percentage of women in the workplace during a period of economic expansion since the start of the women’s rights movement. The number of women in the workplace had been steadily increasing since 1960 and peaked with 74.9 percent of women between the ages of 25 and 59 being employed in the year 2000 (the peak for men was in 1953 at 96.0 percent; the rate is now at 86.4 percent) . Since then, that number has been steadily declining, and is expected to accelerate as the nation faces recession.<br /><br />For the past few years the conventional wisdom explaining the decline of women in the workplace was that women left their jobs for different reasons than men, such as to stay home with their children. As quoted in the New York Times, “When we saw women starting to drop out in the early part of this decade, we thought it was the motherhood movement, women staying home to raise their kids,” says Heather Boushey, a senior economist at the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, “We did not think it was the economy, but when we looked into it, we realized that it was.”<br /><br />The congressional study seems to point that women are leaving the workforce for the same reasons as men: layoffs, pay cuts and the threat of outsourcing. While it does not seem all that surprising that women leave jobs for the same reason as men do, it does reveal the continuing disparities between men and women and the workplace, and the (often incorrect) assumptions that are often made on why certain groups people behave in the ways they do.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-86869880538972331882008-07-28T07:35:00.000-07:002008-07-28T07:35:00.487-07:00Baseball Stats, Demographics, And Political Predictions<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/trekkyandy/2246987599/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 306px; height: 228px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/Election-Predictions-797108.jpg" alt="Election-predictions" border="0" /></a>As the 2008 general election approaches, politicians, pundits and citizens alike will all be looking to the polls to gain insight into the outcome of this year’s historic election. Yet one of the most accurate predictors during the recent primary season was not any of the prominent U.S. polling institutions, or any of the major media outlets or television news networks. Instead, it was from an unlikely source: an anonymous blogger writing under the name Poblano (which is a mild chili pepper), who later revealed himself as Nate Silver, a young statistical guru in the world of baseball stats.<br /><br />According to <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469">Newsweek</a>, Silver pioneered what is now considered to be one of the most accurate statistical methods for predicting outcomes in baseball. The 30-year-old developed his algorithm as a hobby while working as a consultant out of college (it helped having access to powerful analytical software). After attaining fame for his novel technique, he began leveraging his predictive prowess by starting his own sports statistics company, called Baseball Prospectus. Using the same approaches he used in predicting baseball games--that utilizing the right historic data could help predict outcomes in the future-- he started applying these concepts to politics in his (formerly) anonymous blog, <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/">FiveThirtyEight</a>.<br /><br />Silver’s approach to parsing election data is based in regression analysis, a statistical method commonly employed by economists to tease out single variables from complicated data sets. Rather than taking current polling data at face value, Silver used demographic information along with prior election results to determine his predictions. For instance, to forecast the election results in a particular city, he would use demographic parameters such as age, sex and race to find the results of demographically similar congressional districts that had already held elections. His results were astonishing; according to Newsweek, he came within 20 delegates (out of a total of 1,700) in predicting the results of Super Tuesday, and had a solid record for predicting the other primaries held in March (although he did underestimate Clinton’s performances in Kentucky and South Dakota).<br /><br />Silver’s results are significant, not just in the world of politics and baseball, but because it demonstrates the power of using demographic data to explain and predict the things going on in the world. For investors this may mean taking new approaches to looking at devastating events such as the foreclosure crisis, and determining what, if any, variables can be pulled out. While it is true that this type of analysis has long been used in market analysis, Silver’s novel approaches are sure to bring some much-needed fresh air into the stodgy world of statistics and demographics.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-71564278784234732292008-07-25T12:17:00.000-07:002008-07-25T12:28:36.275-07:00Why Is Gas So Much Cheaper In Tucson Than Phoenix?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/goldberg/2156860457/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 288px; height: 215px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/West-Coast-Gas-720481.jpg" alt="West-coast-gas-prices" border="0" /></a>Tucson, Arizona currently has some of the cheapest gasoline in the nation. As of July 25th, it is a bargain (relatively speaking, of course) at $3.78 per gallon, according to <a href="http://www.gasbuddy.com/">Gassbuddy.com</a>. Yet only a two-hour drive away in Phoenix, the average price is nearly 20 cents higher, averaging $3.96 per gallon, which is on par with the national average. Initially transportation costs seems like it could explain the differences; perhaps Tucson is connected to some main petroleum artery that crisscrosses the United States, while Phoenix is still relying on some derivative of the Pony Express. Yet this is not the case. The two cities are served by the same pipeline, and have sufficient holding tanks to keep demand under control. So how could two cities that are demographically similar and located in the same state have such different gas prices?<br /><br />It turns out that geography plays a major role in determining gasoline prices. According to <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92675406">NPR</a>, Phoenix suffers from much worse air quality than Tucson, a malady largely attributed to its geographical situation and compounded by the sheer size of the city (which in the 1990s became the fifth largest in the country). Because of this, the city is required by the EPA to sell a cleaner-burning fuel, which happens to be more expensive. Tucson, on the other hand, doesn’t suffer the same pollution problems as Phoenix, and as a result is allowed to sell the cheapest (and dirtiest) gasoline on the market. Mixing this fuel with government-subsidized ethanol helps to further lower the price of gasoline in the city.<br /><br />The gas prices in Tucson and Phoenix demonstrate how demographics and geography can interplay in often surprising ways. In this case, Phoenix drivers pay a 20 cent per gallon premium at the pump because of a combination of environmental factors, a situation I’m sure the residents of Phoenix weren’t anticipating when the region first began to grow. As for me, living in a city where regular old unleaded gasoline is currently being hawked at $4.45, I think I'll just take the bus.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-64501837594275010972008-07-25T11:14:00.000-07:002008-07-25T11:38:12.255-07:00High Corn And Soybean Prices Force Mississippi Delta Catfish Farmers Out Of Business<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/rogersmith/1796443880/"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 304px; height: 229px;" src="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/uploaded_images/Catfish-Farm-701336.jpg" alt="Catfish-farm" border="0" /></a>The rising prices of corn and soybeans, which have put a major strain on American farmers this season, may be claiming its first casualty: the Mississippi River Delta catfish farm. According to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/18/business/18catfish.html?pagewanted=1&hp">New York Times</a>, the input costs for feeding farm-raised catfish has become so exorbitant that farmers across the region are being forced to empty their ponds.<br /><br />Several years ago, catfish farming was still a $462 million industry. Catfish farms were not only the most successful farmed fish product in the United States, but also the most environmentally friendly. Unlike other farmed fish, catfish ponds have a relatively small impact on the environment, making American farmed catfish one of the most ecologically sound fish on the market. The decline of the catfish industry began to accelerate once cheap Asian fish flooded the market, effectively putting a cap on prices. As the price of the feed for the fish increased, catfish farmers became unable to compete on the global market under these tight constraints.<br /><br />Unfortunately, these poor economic conditions can’t be completely blamed for the demise of the catfish industry. Always considered to be a local specialty (a slimy, pond dwelling, local specialty to boot), there was a failure to market catfish on the broader United States market. Chilean sea bass, on the other hand, has become a popular dish despite the negative environmental consequences and even less appetizing official name: the Patagonian toothfish.<br /><br />Now if only someone had the foresight several years ago to rebrand ‘farm-raised catfish’ as ‘southern pond salmon’ or even ‘Mississippi eco-deliciousfish,’ perhaps there still would be a viable industry for them in this country…Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-18964059752433710322008-07-16T07:30:00.000-07:002008-07-16T07:30:07.676-07:00Headaches At The Census Bureau: Wireless Devices Scrapped For Old Fashioned Pen and PaperA scrapped plan to incorporate the use of wireless handheld devices in recording the 2010 U.S. Census has many politicians and independent demographers worried about the accuracy of the upcoming census, according to a recent Washington Post <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/07/AR2008070702380.html">article</a>. The handheld devices, which in the original Census Bureau budget had been projected to be used in recording data for follow-up visits to households that had failed to return mail-in questionnaires, suffered from technical problems that forced the Bureau to revert back to the old-fashioned method of collecting the data: pen and paper.<br /><br />The decision to conduct the surveys without the use of the new electronic devices may have far-reaching implications. The change, which was made official in April, will not only put pressure on the agency to have the census completed by the December 31, 2010 deadline, but will also put the U.S. Census $2 to 3 billion over budget, as using the electronic devices would have been considerably less expensive and much more efficient than using pen and paper to record the data.<br /><br />Even more troubling than the budgetary problems associated with the recent changes is the potential for under-representing low-income and minority groups in the census. “Minorities, immigrants and poor people are more likely to lack fixed addresses and to find census forms confusing or suspicious and therefore are less likely to return them by mail….Following up with home visits is crucial to ensuring that they are tallied,” according to the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/07/AR2008070702380.html">Washington Post</a>.<br /><br />Fairly representing these groups is one of the most important tasks of the U.S. Census Bureau. The official census data are used to determine the number of congressional representatives each state is allotted, to establish the boundaries of congressional districts and to help form policy at both the federal and state levels. Undercounting these segments of the population in the U.S. Census could potentially disenfranchise those who are often most in need of fair representation.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-52207874006889732852008-07-15T11:29:00.000-07:002008-07-15T11:30:49.857-07:00Community Supported Agriculture: Good For You, And The Farmer TooFresh, healthy and locally grown food has long been a mainstay of the environmental movement and has manifested itself in the increasing popularity of organic foods in the supermarket, as well as the prevalence of farmer's markets in many parts of the United States. In a growing trend, many environmentally conscious consumers are beginning to take this notion one step further by purchasing shares of local farms in what is known as "community-supported agriculture" (or CSAs). Under this system, people pay an upfront fee to a local farm before the season starts, and in return receive weekly or biweekly packages of fresh produce as the various crops become available.<br /><a name="sn1c"></a><a name="d37f"></a><br />Community-supported agriculture was first put into practice in Europe and Asia during the 1980s, but didn't gain popularity in the United States until the more recently. The Internet has greatly helped many of the programs get off the ground, as online communities discuss the benefits of local agriculture and can to readily organize CSAs. According to a recent article in the <a name="xeb8"></a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/us/10farms.html">New York Times</a>, "there were fewer than 100 such farms in the early 1990s, but in the last several years the numbers have grown to close to 1,500."<br /><br /><a name="uic50"></a>CSA programs have been successful at eliminating many of the barriers associated with operating small sustainable farms. Paying an upfront fee, which on average is between $500 and $800 per season, eliminates the need for a middleman, in turn bringing more revenue to the farmer. In addition to this, receiving payment before the crops have been harvested can help to alleviate the pain of having a bad season, effectively splitting the burden between the farmer and the customer. Unfortunately, this does come at a cost for the consumer, many of whom admit they pay a premium for participating in a CSA, according to the New York Times.<br /><a name="h.jx"></a><br /><a name="jgnk"></a>Yet most participants agree that the advantages of eating locally and sustainably produced food far outweigh the disadvantages. People appreciate the environmental and health benefits of eating local organic food, particularly in the reduction of waste and energy associated with transportation and packaging. By receiving packages of different harvests every week, customers also gain a better understanding of the natural cycles that dictate agriculture, something that is lost to the vast majority of customers shopping in supermarkets.<br /><br /><a name="v-rj"></a><a name="v-rj0"></a>While it is unlikely that community-supported agriculture will completely replace commercial agriculture (there will always be a demand for imported fresh fruit in the winter, at least in the foreseeable future), it does represent an interesting model which could potentially be replicated in other sectors. In addition to produce and meat, some farms also include fresh cut flowers as part of their CSA program. A group in Vermont has been experimenting with using a similar model to supply <a name="ihfv"></a><a href="http://www.familyforests.org/research/WoodEnergy.shtml">sustainably harvested firewood</a> to Vermonters as a source of fuel. As a large segment of the population becomes increasingly concerned with the benefits of decreasing their ecological footprint, it is likely that community-supported agriculture, and other similar programs, will continue to gain popularity.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-63066948485045865252008-07-07T07:26:00.000-07:002008-07-07T07:26:00.496-07:00Retired Baby Boomers Becoming Part Time EntrepreneursMany older baby boomers have been choosing an earlier retirement as a means to pursue hobbies and other interests as part-time small businesses. Carl Boast, for example, a former neuroscientist in the pharmaceutical industry, quit his job at age 55 to pursue his interest in nature photography, according to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/03/business/smallbusiness/03hunt.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin">New York Times</a>. That interest eventually morphed into a small business; he began to market his photographs at craft shows sponsored by Wyeth, his former employer. While Boast’s nature photography business has not been particularly profitable, as with most other baby boomers taking part in this growing trend, profit tends not to be the primary motivation. <br /><br /> “Carl Boast, owner of Peaceable Kingdom Photos in Moneta, Va., was making a hefty salary in New Jersey as a neuroscientist in the pharmaceutical industry when he decided he ‘wasn’t a fan of working for a living’ and began plotting his departure,” according to the New York Times. And this doesn’t appear to be just an isolated trend. “Ty Freyvogel, a small-business consultant and investor in Pittsburgh, predicts that the ranks of early retirement dabblers will swell as they discover they have too much time and not quite enough money. ‘If they do the proper research and can get started without putting a significant amount of capital behind them initially, these types of small start-ups can get going with little risk,’ he said.”<br /><br />These baby boomer micro-businesses are particularly interesting as profitability tends not to be the top priority for most participants, allowing people to be more creative in pursuing personal hobbies and quirky business ideas. As an increasing number of baby boomers begin to take on these types of low risk endeavors, this growing pool of entrepreneurial partial retirees may provide unforeseen opportunities to investors.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-63381004791466279672008-07-03T14:35:00.000-07:002008-07-03T15:02:46.852-07:00The 100K House: Green Building On A BudgetThere has been much press recently about the changes occurring in American suburbs in response to rising energy prices and the foreclosure crisis. The New York Times has discussed the downfall of “exurbs,” commuter suburbs that are built a significant distance from any urban core, and Christopher Leinberger of the Atlantic Monthly has gone as far as to draw comparison to the “white flight” of the 1960s, arguing that suburban subdivisions will become the urban slum of the future. For more on changes in the suburbs, read NuWire’s take on the <a href="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/stepford-no-more-the-death-of-suburbia-51767.aspx">death of suburbia</a>. While the changes may not be quite that drastic, there is a wellspring of demographic data to suggest that consumer preferences are beginning to shift away from the suburbs and back toward <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime">high density, walkable urban areas</a>.<br /><br />For nearly 60 years the prevailing trend in the United States has been away from urban areas. Cheap energy and the American passion for the automobile made suburban living an easy and appealing alternative to living in the overcrowded and polluted cities of post-World War II America. Yet the high prices of energy have exposed the glaring inadequacies ("What do you mean it costs $75 to fill my Buick?") of a suburban infrastructure built for the car. Consumer preferences are already beginning to lean toward greener and more energy efficient products; just <a href="http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/11/where-are-all-those-priuses/">try finding a Prius right now</a>.<br /><br />Demographics will also play a major role in shifting to a more urban future. As Christopher Leinberger in his Atlantic Monthly article said:<br /><br />“When the Baby Boomers were young, families with children made up more than half of all households; by 2000, they were only a third of households; and by 2025, they will be closer to a quarter. Young people are starting families later than earlier generations did, and having fewer children. The Boomers themselves are becoming empty-nesters, and many have voiced a preference for urban living. By 2025, the U.S. will contain about as many single-person households as families with children.”<br /><br />Because the population is growing, families with children will still grow in absolute number—according to U.S. Census data, there will be about 4 million more households with children in 2025 than there were in 2000. But more than 10 million new single-family homes have already been built since 2000, most of them in the suburbs.”<br /><br />With an obvious oversupply of suburban developments, and a high demand for urban locales, it is likely that many developers will begin to shift their priorities to building higher density developments that conform to more stringent environmental standards closer to urban centers. One team of developers in Philadelphia is taking this idea in an interesting direction. The 100K House project is an experiment in urban design aiming to create a modern “green” house for less than $100,000 in construction costs.<br /><br />According to the developer’s <a href="http://100khouse.com/">website and blog</a>, the 100K House is to be built as urban infill in a rising Philadelphia neighborhood. Wedged between two houses in an 18 x 60 foot plot, the house will be <a href="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/leed-program-leads-to-potential-profits-51367.aspx">LEED certified</a> and utilize novel approaches to maximize energy efficiency. For instance, rather than installing air conditioners, which are costly both in upfront and energy costs, the developers are looking into alternative solutions to make the house livable during Philly’s relatively short, yet uncomfortably sticky summers. One possible solution they came up with is to couple a passive cooling system (composed of an 11-point system that includes energy-efficient windows and a white roof to deflect heat) with an electric dehumidifier to control that “I can’t breathe because I feel like I’m underwater” type of humidity.<br /><br />The <a href="http://100khouse.com/">100K House</a> demonstrates that there are many opportunities for development outside of the traditional residential subdivision and big box commercial area mindset, and that building “green” can be accomplished on a budget. As the demographics continue to shift in favor of urban areas, it will be interesting to see how this is manifested in new investment opportunities. The field is wide open (or, as the case may be, sandwiched between two row homes) for innovation and entrepreneurship.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-52936556822580772442008-06-05T09:06:00.000-07:002008-06-05T09:07:46.093-07:00Iowa Faces Surplus Of Jobs<p class="MsoNormal">People across the country who are worried about layoffs leading to them and a looming recession can take solace in </p> <p class="MsoNormal">"As rising unemployment and layoffs beset workers around the country, Iowa faces a different problem: a surplus of jobs. Or to put it another way: a shortage of workers. A survey of companies by Iowa Workforce Development, a state agency, found as many as 48,000 job vacancies, in industries including financial services — Des Moines trails only Hartford as the nation’s insurance capital — health care and skilled manufacturing. One estimate projects the job surplus to reach 198,000 by 2014, with vacancies increasingly in professional positions. Greater Des Moines alone faces a shortfall of 60,000 workers in the next decade," according to the New York Times.</p>Trista Winniehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14382617732016247867noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1391459843364109343.post-91875191711345035892008-06-03T08:51:00.001-07:002008-06-03T08:51:59.685-07:00Parents Of China Earthquake Victims Being Allowed More Than One Child<p class="MsoNormal">China is a nation full of only children who are doted upon by their parents. The nation adopted a one-child policy in 1979 in an effort to keep overpopulation at bay. The notion of eliminating the one-child policy has been discussed (for more on that, see my previous post <a href="http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/commoncensus/2008/02/china-may-eliminate-one-child-policy.html">China May Eliminate One-Child Policy</a>).</p> <p class="MsoNormal">But now, in the wake of the May 12 earthquake in which thousands of children died, the one-child policy has been lifted--partially. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">"Thousands of parents have openly challenged the government over why so many schools collapsed during the earthquake," according to the New York Times.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Parents of children who were killed or seriously injured in the earthquake are now exempt from the one-child policy, and can apply for legal permission to have another child, according to the Associated Press. </p> <p>"The committee announced Monday that if a couple’s legally born child was killed in the earthquake, an illegal child under 18 years could be registered as a legal replacement. If the dead child was illegal, it said the family would no longer be responsible for outstanding fines, although parents would not be reimbursed for penalties already paid," according to the New York Times.</p> <p>"Zhongxin Sun, a sociology professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, said some mothers may be too old to conceive; others may have undergone sterilization. 'To lose a child is to lose everything for Chinese parents,' said Professor Sun, who is a visiting scholar at Yale University Law School. 'A child is their only hope,'" according to the New York Times.</p>Trista Winniehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14382617732016247867noreply@blogger.com3